Activist investors are aggressively accumulating BP shares, with hedge fund ownership reaching 27% – the highest among European oil majors. Elliott Management and ValueAct have taken combined £3.2 billion positions, betting on:
• Takeover premium of 25-35% over current £72 share price
• Breakup value exceeding £90/share if assets are sold separately
• Imminent sector consolidation following Exxon’s Pioneer deal
“BP is the last undervalued integrated major,” said ValueAct’s Mason Morfit, highlighting:
✓ Trading at 5.2x EBITDA vs Shell’s 6.8x
✓ Renewable assets worth £18B alone
✓ 40% upside in base oil business
Market positioning suggests:
→ 65% probability of deal within 12 months (per Goldman Sachs)
→ Shell (40%), Chevron (30%), private equity (30%) as likely suitors
→ Minimum offer expected at £85/share
