China’s all-or-nothing approach to trade negotiations is fast-tracking what many now see as an inevitable decoupling of the world’s two largest economies. The April 24 announcement marks the most explicit articulation yet of Beijing’s “dual circulation” strategy to reduce dependence on Western markets.
Key Indicators of Decoupling:
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US-China trade fell to 583B in 2024 from 659B peak
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Only 12% of Chinese tech firms still use US semiconductor suppliers
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American capital flows to China reach two-decade bottom
Military-Industrial Implications:
The standoff now extends beyond commerce into defense spheres:
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China banned rare earth exports to Lockheed Martin suppliers
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US blocked GE engine sales for COMAC aircraft
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Huawei developing entirely Chinese-made 3nm chips by 2026
Cold War Parallels:
Like the US-Soviet technological race, both nations are now:
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Building parallel supply chains (China’s “Xinchuang” vs US “Friend-shoring”)
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Creating competing tech standards (5G protocols, AI ethics frameworks)
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Forming exclusive economic blocs (IPEF vs RCEP)
