1. Backroom Maneuvering:
- Ackman hosted secret dinner with 12 RNC mega-donors (4/5/25) proposing “policy certainty guarantees” from Trump.
- Key demand: Written commitment to maintain Fed independence and 60-day notice for major trade actions.
2. VP Shortlist Calculus:
- Corporate favorites: Glenn Youngkin (83% CEO approval), Nikki Haley (76%).
- Dealbreakers: Tulsi Gabbard (42%) due to anti-Big Tech stance; JD Vance (39%) for anti-Ukraine views.
3. Data Leak:
- Private survey of 150 Fortune 500 gov affairs teams shows:
- 61% want GOP platform to “decouple from Trump personality.”
- 54% prepared to shift donations to Senate races if ticket deemed “unstable.”
4. Historical Precedent:
- 1996 comparison: Similar business pressure led Dole to moderate positions against Clinton.
- 2020 lesson: Corporate PAC donations to Trump fell 22% after Charlottesville.
