The cryptocurrency market’s 5% plunge Thursday revealed an uncomfortable truth for digital asset maximalists – in times of true macroeconomic stress, Bitcoin still trades like a risk asset rather than digital gold.
Key Findings:
- BTC-S&P 500 correlation rose to 0.82 (1=perfect)
- Crypto moved in lockstep with tech stocks
- “Safe haven” narrative challenged again
Historical Context:
This marks the 7th time in 2025 that Bitcoin has:
- Dropped >3% on same day as S&P 500 decline
- Underperformed gold during risk-off events
- Shown higher beta than NASDAQ stocks
“The decoupling thesis keeps getting postponed,” sighed Messari CEO Ryan Selkis. “Until crypto develops independent drivers, it will keep getting tossed around by macro winds.”
Policy Implications:
Trump’s proposed tariffs would:
- Disrupt tech supply chains (hurting mining)
- Strengthen dollar (pressuring crypto)
- Increase trade friction (reducing liquidity)
