Global geopolitical dynamics may be entering a new phase after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had assured him New Delhi would stop purchasing Russian oil — a move that could redefine energy and trade alignments between the world’s major powers.
Speaking at a press briefing in the Oval Office on Wednesday, Trump said,
“Modi assured me today that they will not be buying oil from Russia. That’s a big stop. Now we’ve got to get China to do the same.”
The U.S. president’s statement comes amid renewed efforts by Washington to cut off Moscow’s energy revenues, which have sustained its military campaign in Ukraine. Trump called India’s cooperation “a major diplomatic success,” though he conceded that the implementation “will take a little bit of a process.”
No clear timeline has been provided by either Washington or New Delhi, underscoring the delicate balance India faces between maintaining affordable energy access and aligning with Western geopolitical expectations.
India’s Strategic Balancing Act
India’s Ministry of External Affairs responded diplomatically, reiterating that the country’s energy policy is driven by the need to protect consumers and maintain stable prices.
“Our energy imports are guided entirely by our national interest — to safeguard Indian consumers amid volatile markets,” said Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson for the ministry.
India’s long-standing position has been pragmatic rather than ideological. The country remains one of Russia’s largest crude buyers, importing around 1.7 million barrels per day — roughly half of Russia’s seaborne exports — according to data from Kpler.
Analysts note that India’s diversified approach — sourcing oil from Russia, the Middle East, and the U.S. — has been central to stabilizing domestic energy costs and inflation amid global disruptions.
Washington’s Strategic Pressure
The announcement follows months of U.S. diplomatic efforts to curb global purchases of Russian crude. Washington sees such trade as undermining its sanctions and price cap policy, designed to restrict Moscow’s ability to fund its war in Ukraine.
The G7 price cap on Russian oil, set at $47.6 per barrel, remains a cornerstone of Western efforts to constrain the Kremlin’s income. However, India has defended its continued imports as both economically rational and stabilizing for global energy markets.
In July, Indian Oil Minister Hardeep Singh Puri told CNBC that buying discounted Russian oil helped prevent global prices from spiking.
“Had countries stopped buying at that time, oil could have reached $130 a barrel,” he said, adding that Washington had encouraged purchases “within the price cap framework.”
Trade & Diplomatic Tensions
Despite strong strategic ties between Washington and New Delhi, the issue has strained bilateral relations. In August, Trump raised tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50%, citing “imbalanced trade and energy dealings with Moscow.”
Yet, the U.S. continues to view India as a vital ally in countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Analysts see Trump’s latest remarks as both a public signal of trust and a test of strategic partnership between the two nations.
“This statement puts India in a geopolitical spotlight,” said Dr. Tanvi Madan, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. “If New Delhi follows through, it could realign energy and security partnerships across Eurasia.”
Energy Markets and Global Implications
Oil traders reacted cautiously to the announcement. Brent crude rose 0.82% to $62.43 per barrel, while WTI climbed 0.89% to $58.79, reflecting uncertainty about the pace of India’s potential withdrawal from Russian supply lines.
Should India significantly reduce Russian imports, it could create short-term price volatility, forcing refiners to seek alternative crude sources from the U.S., Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
“If India rebalances its supply mix, we may see a medium-term reshuffling of global energy trade corridors,” said Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets.
The Broader Picture
Trump’s announcement adds a new dimension to the evolving geopolitical chessboard. As the U.S. pushes for greater alignment among allies, India’s decisions will not only shape the energy market but also signal how far major emerging economies are willing to align with Western sanctions regimes.
For now, New Delhi’s message remains consistent — energy security first, diplomacy second. Whether that changes in the coming months will be closely watched by both Washington and Moscow.
