The U.S.–Vietnam trade agreement appears to be more than a bilateral arrangement—it’s a playbook for future trade deals. Washington’s new model features dual-rate tariffs designed to:
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Reward compliant partners with a 20% rate
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Penalize evasioners with a 40% rate for transshipment
According to Mark Williams, Chief Asia Economist at Capital Economics, many nations are now likely to believe they can secure tariff rates below the 20% benchmark set in the Vietnam deal. Indeed, India’s massive tariff-sensitive exports—and EU’s high stakes on agriculture—may prompt them to seek similar or better terms.
Moreover, Sebastian Raedler of BofA predicted that “tariffs are going up from here, not down.” That’s a clear signal that any deal likely starts high before granting carve-outs. This mirrors Washington’s new approach: start firm, then negotiate down tiered access.
But unlike full-scale trade pacts with deep concessions, these appear to be rough framework agreements—targeted, expedient, and focused on enforcement around supply-chain integrity. Capitals like Canada or the EU may find this model easier to accept—if they can secure sector-specific access.
